With the new Independent Group in the House of Commons currently composed of 8 Labour and 3 Tory MPs, the Head of the School of Politics and International Relations at the University, Dr Adrian Pabst comments that they are ‘the wrong answer to the right question.’
‘The Independent Group correctly diagnoses the broken politics of a Conservative Party in hock to the hard-core Brexiteers of the European Research Group led by Jacob Rees-Mogg and of a Labour Party currently controlled by a far-left clique around Jeremy Corbyn.
‘The two main parties, which together received over 80% of all votes at the last general election, are morphing from broad churches into narrow sects, leaving millions of voters politically homeless. They have vacated the centre ground of British politics where a sizeable number of people tend to be.
‘But are the members of the Independent Group right to suggest that is there large popular support for a pro-EU party that combines economic with social liberalism? Nothing is less certain. After the 2008 financial crisis and a decade of austerity, there is growing popular demand for greater economic justice – taking on big banks and big business, raising wages, nationalising the railways and investing in the regions.
‘And in the wake of the 2011 London riots and increasing social fragmentation, many voters want a sense of societal cohesion and stability. This includes more moderate levels of immigration, generous patriotism and pride in the place people inhabit. In short, the public prefer a politics that is more radical on the economy and more communitarian on culture. In our age of anger and upheaval, neither of the two big parties currently offers this paradoxical combination of economically radical and small-c conservative politics.
‘It is this void and a lack of political leadership which make the creation of the Independent Group potentially significant. The Gang of 11 highlights just how much both the Conservatives and Labour are struggling to command majority support in the country or in parliament.
‘But it also shows that a new centrist liberal party is not about to take over from them. With just 12 MPs, the Liberal Democrats have not recovered from embracing economic neo-liberalism in the coalition with the Tories or marked social liberalism that puts the party at odds with working-class and lower middle-class voters who are socially more small-c conservative. No party has ever won a seats majority without support from this part of the electorate.
‘Given the First-Past-The-Post voting system and the absence of big hitters among the Gang of 11, it is unlikely that the Independent Group – once it has become a new centrist party – will win big. Nor is it true that small parties are an irrelevance in Britain. The SDP, which split from Labour in the 1980s, ultimately forced the Labour Party to modernise and defeat the hard left.
‘Could something similar happen again with the Labour MPs who are staying to fight against anti-Semitism and the Stalinist group around Corbyn? And did not UKIP’s 3.8 million voters at the 2015 push the Conservative Party down the path of a hard Brexit, which is opposed by at least half of Tory MPs who are unlikely to quit. Not to mention the SNP in Scotland and the DUP in Northern Ireland that have changed regional and national politics, taking votes off Labour and the Conservatives and changing their respective agenda.
‘For now, neither of the two big parties is building a cross-class, cross-cultural coalition that can win a majority, and neither Theresa May nor Jeremy Corbyn seem capable of providing a big-tent politics. With new leaders and fresh ideas that speak to the needs of disaffected voters, either party has the chance to seize the middle ground. In this manner, the creation of the Independent Group could yet bring about a realignment of British politics.’
Dr Adrian Pabst
Dr Adrian Pabst, Head of School. School of Politics and International Relations, is an expert on post-liberal ideas (Blue Labour, UKIP) and Western Politics particularly social democracy.
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