Responding to last night’s vote on Brexit, Dr Adrian Pabst, Head of the School of Politics and International Relations comments: ‘After months on the side-lines, the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn made his long-announced move of tabling a no-confidence vote in the government – but there is a risk of Westminster’s version of Groundhog Day.
‘This follows last night’s dramatic defeat when Theresa May’s Brexit deal was rejected by a majority of 230 – the largest loss of a sitting government in almost a century.
‘The problem for the Labour Party is that May seems secure in her position as Prime Minister. Both the Tory arch-Brexiteers and the DUP, which prop up the minority Conservative government, have vowed to support her. So far, Jeremy Corbyn lacks the numbers to remove May. If, as seems likely, the she commands the confidence of the House of Commons in today’s vote expected around 7pm, then Labour’s primary goal of forcing a general election will not come to pass.
‘In this situation, Corbyn will try to dictate the terms of a new Brexit deal to May, including staying in some form of a customs union, which helps frictionless trade with the EU but rules out free-trade arrangement with third countries. The trouble is that this will further infuriate large parts of the Conservative Party and the DUP on whose votes May relies to stay in office and to get a deal through Parliament.
‘Nor is there a Commons majority for Labour’s preferred version of Brexit – not even if 20-30 Tory Remainers break rank. Failing that, Corbyn will probably table more no-confidence motions in the hope that the Tory government might eventually fall. This looks like Westminster’s version of Groundhog Day.
‘Therefore some are suggesting that in a week or two, Corbyn will embrace the option of a second referendum. After all, that is Labour Party policy as decided by the members at the last party conference, many of whom voted for Corbyn as leader.
‘Recent polling indicates that 72 per cent of Labour members want him to throw his weight behind the People’s Vote. If there is a second referendum with Remain on the ballot paper, more than 90 % of them would vote for Britain to stay in the EU.
‘The problem with this scenario is not just that Corbyn happens to be a life-long Eurosceptic who wants to leave the ‘capitalist club’ that is the EU. He can legitimately point out that more than 70 per cent of Labour MPs represent constituencies that voted Leave in 2016. Only a soft Brexit does not alienate Labour Leave voters without whom the party can’t win the next election.
‘Corbyn presides over a party with its members and voters that is no less divided that May’s Tories, albeit along different lines – Labour is mostly split between soft Brexiteers and Remainers, while the Conservatives are split three ways between Remainers, soft and hard Brexiteers.
‘What is interesting is that May and Corbyn share some striking similarities. Neither leads their party on the question of Europe and enjoys much support for their view on Brexit. And neither can craft a parliamentary majority for a particular deal to leave (or remain in) the EU.
‘To get a deal through Parliament, May needs to turn simultaneously against the Irish backstop and in favour of membership of the customs union or even the single market. That makes squaring circles look easy.
‘Corbyn is similarly caught between a rock and a hard place. If he is seen as either facilitating or frustrating Britain’s exit from the EU, his uneasy electoral coalition will collapse and deny him the ultimate prize of acceding to No 10.
‘Corbyn’s strategy of calling for an early election and promising to vote against no-deal is just as ineffective as May’s stubborn attempt to get her deal approved. Neither has the authority to get Brexit over the line and focus on the problems facing people in their everyday existence – housing, health, secure jobs and a sense of belonging to community and country.
‘Whoever can command a majority position on Brexit might be able to gain the confidence of the people and Parliament. But even if Britain either leaves or remains in the EU, neither Labour nor the Conservatives seem able to heal the divisions that led to the Brexit vote in the first place. Many voters will continue to lose confidence in parties and politicians. Democracy is at stake, and both government and opposition are failing.’
Dr Adrian Pabst is an expert on post-liberal ideas (Blue Labour, UKIP) and Western Politics, particularly social democracy.
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