Even with a COVID-19 vaccine, we will have to keep living with the disease for a considerable time and we will have to learn to keep the R number below one. Here Professor Martin Michaelis and Dr Mark Wass of the School of Biosciences explain why this will not only protect us from COVID-19 but also from other diseases like the flu:
‘Despite the recently announced arrival of vaccines against COVID-19, the pandemic is far from over. For example, it remains unclear how long protection by these vaccines may last. Even in an ideal scenario, it will take time to roll out the vaccines.
‘Even with a vaccine, COVID-19 is unlikely to just disappear as it may adapt and escape immune recognition, which would require novel adapted vaccines. Therefore, COVID-19 may permanently add to the burden caused by respiratory viruses such as influenza viruses.
‘The R number indicates how many individuals are infected on average by a virus-infected individual. If R is higher than 1, cases will increase exponentially. If R is lower than 1, cases will fade away. Strict distancing, isolation, and hygiene measures during lockdowns were effective in breaking transmission chains, reducing R below 1 and bringing infections down. In the Southern hemisphere, lockdowns both suppressed COVID-19 spread and even annual flu. This indicates that lockdown measures not only reduce R for COVID-19, but also drastically reduce the spread of germs in general. Since the flu is responsible for 150,000 to 650,000 deaths globally every year, a significant reduction would quickly spare millions of lives.
‘Since we cannot live in a permanent lockdown, we need to find alternative ways to reduce the spread of infectious diseases and keep the R down. Taiwan has kept the COVID-19 spread extremely low from the very beginning. Due to the continued success in keeping numbers very low, restrictions could be eased without causing significant outbreaks. Only seven COVID-19 deaths have been reported among the 23.5 million Taiwanese and the economy grew this year. This adds to an increasing amount of data indicating that low infection numbers are not only the best way to protect lives but also to protect the economy.
‘Given the high COVID-19 numbers in the UK, it will take a considerable amount of time and effort to reduce virus spread to very low levels such as those in Taiwan. Hence, we need to develop strategies that at the same time enable a meaningful life and further reduce disease spread, when we come out of the current lockdown. Such a new normal would include keeping more distance between each other, less travel, more working from home, mask wearing, increased hygiene measures, the avoidance of crowded spaces, improved ventilation, smaller venue capacities, and rapid self-isolation in case of symptoms. Such a new normal will not only protect us from COVID-19 but also from other diseases like the flu. Once accustomed to this new normal, we may look back and wonder how we could have unnecessarily sacrificed so many lives in the past due to diseases including the flu and COVID-19.’
Professor Martin Michaelis and Dr Mark Wass, School of Biosciences
Professor Michaelis and Dr Wass run a joint computational/ wet laboratory. Dr Wass is a computational biologist with expertise in structural biology and big data analysis. Prof Michaelis’ research is focused on the identification and investigation of drugs and their mechanisms of action, with a focus on cancer and viruses. With regard to viruses, Prof Michaelis and Dr Wass work on virus-host cell interactions and antiviral drug targets. In the cancer field, they investigate drug resistance in cancer. In collaboration with Professor Jindrich Cinatl (Goethe-University, Frankfurt am Main), they manage and develop the Resistant Cancer Cell Line (RCCL) Collection, a unique collection of 2,000 cancer cell lines with acquired resistance to anti-cancer drugs. They are also interested in meta-research that investigates research practices in the life sciences.