In response to the transportation issues caused by the pandemic, Professor Roger Vickerman of Kent’s School of Economics said:
‘There has been a virtual collapse of public transport in cities due to lockdowns and social distancing in response to Covid-19. Across the world, passenger demand typically decreased by between 80% and 95% in the earlier stages of lockdowns, although there is some evidence that ridership is creeping up again as restrictions are eased, but only to about half of pre-pandemic levels.
‘The need to provide public funds to keep operators afloat raises further questions about the long-term viability of such operators, especially those in the private sector. Fear of infection also seems likely to lead to more private car usage for commuting in the short to medium term thus compounding the financial problems for public transport operators. If we add to the mix the claims for financial support made by airline and ferry operators it appears that transport policy is likely to need a major shake-up in the next few years as we move towards a new normal. And this may eventually involve a return to much more direct public provision.
‘Aviation has been the greatest immediate loser from the pandemic with entire fleets withdrawn from service. Whilst the days of state-owned flag carriers have largely passed, many airlines, although technically private companies, are still seen as having this image and thus considerable amounts of public money have been provided to some airlines to maintain their capability. For the future, social distancing on aircraft is almost impossible under the current economic model used by most airlines. Can airports achieve effective segregation of different types of traffic? And can governments discriminate between different types of carrier (or service) to ensure that international business can be maintained?
‘It is no surprise therefore to see Britain’s two major long-haul operators, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, who have not been given any UK Government support, taking drastic action to cut jobs and announce plans to concentrate their operations at Heathrow with potential closure of operations at Gatwick. Concentrating on one airport provides advantages of scale both in passenger handling and in flexibility of operations. It may be that in the short to medium term the extra checks on passengers may increase significantly the time to pass through an airport and therefore the possible advantages of serving several more local airports to attract customers may be less important.
‘For the airports this raises significant challenges, not least to their expansion plans. As with transport operators’, airport operators may also be looking to the public sector for support given their importance to local, regional and national economies.
‘All modes of public transport may ultimately have to become more public again.’
Roger Vickerman, Emeritus Professor of European Economics, University of Kent
Roger Vickerman is Emeritus Professor of European Economics at the University of Kent, and also a Visiting Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Imperial College London where he is Chair of the Transport Strategy Centre.
Roger’s research focuses on the relationship between transport (especially infrastructure) and economic development; regional development and integration in the European Union.
He sits on the editorial boards of several journals in both transport and regional science and was Editor in Chief of Transport Policy 2010-2016. He was awarded the Jules Dupuit Prize of the World Conference on Transport Research Society in 2016.
The University’s Press Office provides the media with expert comments in response to topical news events. Colleagues who would like to learn more about how to contribute their expertise or how the service works should contact the Press Office on 3985 or pressoffice@kent.ac.uk