With the UK government requesting an extension to Article 50 and more time to pass its Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons, the University’s Professor Feargal Cochrane considers the state of the government and what happens now.
‘As Theresa May asks the EU for an extension to Article 50, her Brexit policy lies in tatters and her government appears to be barely functioning. The rest of us hold our collective breath to see if the EU will grant this extension and whether a Brexit deal will be achieved.
‘The government is, in effect dying in front of our eyes, consumed by its own Brexit policy and the incompatibilities inherent within it. However, it is now entering a zombie phase because such is the deadlock within the government, no faction has the capacity to prevail.
‘As a result, it limps on in its zombie state, unable to recover, but unable to die a natural death either. In normal political times, Theresa May is likely to have resigned or been pushed out of power some time ago – not least for calling an unnecessary General Election in 2017, losing her majority in parliament, and fatally undermining her own Brexit policy.
‘But these are not normal times, these are Brexit times, when different rules apply and the normal principles of political gravity have been suspended. The UK government is now so weakened, its basic functions are barely operational. Collective cabinet responsibility has largely gone, the Prime Minister’s authority has crumbled, both in parliament and in her government.
‘Ministers feel at liberty to abstain or even vote against their own government and not resign. The Prime Minister is unable to sack, or publicly censure, her cabinet colleagues for indiscipline and Conservative MPs now feel able to call publicly for her to go.
‘Mrs May now seems almost a bystander in the drama, basing political decisions on how to prevent the house of cards that she has built from tumbling down around her. And let’s be under no illusions – she has built it, and she has to own it. She is the ‘remainer’ trying to deliver Brexit, with the ‘zeal of the convert’ – but never quite convincingly enough for her Brexiteer colleagues.
‘She has now asked the EU for an extension to Article 50, a short one until 30 June but not a longer one beyond that. Why has she done this and not left open the option of a longer pause in order to buy time for a more considered and coherent plan? The answer is because she was too weak to ask for a longer extension following a reported row in Cabinet with threats of mass resignations from Brexiteers which would have forced her to resign.
‘The EU has yet to respond formally to the UK’s request for an extension to Article 50 and it may yet decline to do so. While initial comments from Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, were positive, all the other 27 countries have to agree and this is far from certain.
‘If the EU does grant a short extension, it will be on the proviso that the Prime Minister gets her Withdrawal Agreement through the House of Commons next week.
‘May’s plan, such as it is, will be to put the same Withdrawal Agreement back to Parliament next week in the most meaningful of the meaningful votes yet. The one defeated last week by 149 votes.
‘The government will not be able to convince the DUP that the UK can unilaterally withdraw from the Backstop – because that is the point of the backstop – so the route to getting DUP support is far from clear. But even if it did, getting the votes needed looks challenging.
‘It is likely that Theresa May will fail next week to get her deal through the House of Commons, not helped by a quite astounding lack of political touch. Her appeal to public opinion on television last night was bungled and ill-conceived. She is not facing a referendum next week but a vote in the House of Commons, yet she chose to attack those very MPs she has to win over for frustrating the democratic process, while taking no responsibility herself for the abject failure of her policy.
‘We are eight days away now from the most important moment in post-War British political history and the UK is facing its future with the weakest and most incompetent administration since Suez in 1956.
‘The UK is currently due to exit the EU next Friday 29 March at 11pm.’
Professor Feargal Cochrane
Feargal Cochrane is vice- chair of the Political Studies Association and Professor of International Conflict Analysis at the University of Kent. He is director of the Conflict Analysis Research Centre and Deputy Head of the School of Politics and International Relations at Kent. He is currently writing a book entitled Brexit and Northern Ireland: Breaking Peace to be published by Manchester University Press at the end of this year.