Using the notion of seasonal co-integration and a monetarist model, this paper re-examines the long-run monetary neutrality hypothesis, based on the seasonally unadjusted quarterly data of the US over the period 1959Q1 to 2004Q4. The results indicate that money is cointegrated with price at all possible frequencies while real output is cointegrated with price only at an annual frequency. The cointegration between money and price at the zero frequency, and noncointegration between real output and money at all possible frequencies, suggests that money affects nominal but not real variables in the long-run.

The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the empirical relationship among alternative monetary aggregates (M1 and M2), output, prices, interest rates and exchange rates in India. The results of a five-variate vector error correction model are indicative of a bi-directional causality between each of the monetary aggregates and prices. Our findings of a feedback relationship make each of the monetary aggregates a poor intermediate target and informational variable. Moreover, contrary to most recent research in this area, the results are supportive of the real business-cycle view and the Keynesian monetary accommodation hypothesis rather than the monetarists’ theory of the business cycle.

This paper examines the nature of stationarity, cointegration properties and Granger causality on the relationship between population and per capita income in mainland China in a multivariate vector autoregressive model. This study finds the evidence of a common stochastic trend between population and per capita income which is indicative of long-run relationship between these two variables. Empirical results also indicate that a negative long-run causal relationship is flowing from per capita income to population. The short-run relationship between population growth and per capita income growth is at variance across model specifications. The neoclassical growth model reveals that population growth positively contributes to per capita income growth while the modified endogenous growth model shows a negative relationship between these two variables. Moreover, both neoclassical and endogenous growth models indicate that per capita income growth tends to lower the population growth. The long-run relationship is consistent with Becker's view that as income grows, families tend to prefer quality rather than quantity of children.

This paper empirically examines the relationship between financial innovations and interest elasticity of money demand in the UK. Contrary to most research work in this area, the results indicate that financial innovations and other deregulatory changes in financial market conditions after the 1980s have raised the interest elasticity of money demand, and this appears to support the Gurley-Shaw hypothesis. The evidence calls into question the relative efficacy of a monetary targeting approach in the conduct of monetary policy.

This paper estimates time-varying optimal hedge ratios (OHRs) using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic(GARCH) error correction model. The GARCH specification accounts for timevarying distribution in asset returns while the error correction term preserves short-run deviations between two fundamentally linked assets. Using stock index and stock index futures from four European countries, we compare the hedging effectiveness of the GARCH error correction model with alternative hedging models that hold the OHR constant. Overall, in three out of four cases, the GARCH error correction model is shown to offer superior risk reduction compared with the competing models. Finally, we also estimate the OHRs using the GARCH-X model, which allows the error correction term to be a determinant of the time-varying volatility. The GARCH-X model performs similar to the GARCH error correction model. The results presented in this paper have important insights into the risk management of financial assets when returns distribution changes over time.

The Fisherian theory of interest asserts that a fully perceived change in inflation would be reflected in nominal interest rates and stock returns in the same direction in the long run. This paper examines the Fisherian hypothesis of asset returns using alternative techniques of linear regression, and vector error correction models to examine the nature of the relationship between stock returns and inflation in the UK. Consistent with the Fisherian hypothesis, empirical evidence in the linear regression model suggests a positive and statistically significant relationship between stock returns and inflation, which regards common stock as a good hedge against inflation. The results based on the unit root and cointegration tests indicate a long-run reliable relationship between price levels, share prices, and interest rates which could be interpreted as the long-run determinants of stock returns. The findings also suggest a bidirectional relationship between stock returns and inflation. The evidence of a significant Fisher effect is robust across model specifications.

This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models, three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods

In this paper we empirically examine the effects of government debt on interest rate, price, output and capital formation in the USA during the post-war period. Using co-integration methodology supplemented with variance decompositions and impulse response functions, the study found a long-run equilibrium as well as a strong feedback relationship between real debt and real capital formation. The results also indicate that public debt increases inflation with adverse effects on capital formation and real output which broadly support the views of 'monetarists', and partially of the neo-Ricardian economists.

This paper examines the issue of equilibrium and efficiency of exchange rates in a silver-based monetary system during nineteenth century India and Iran. The results based on co-integration tests indicate a reliable long-run relationship between the metallic value and the exchange value of currencies in a silver-based monetary standard. Our results also validate the necessary and sufficient conditions of the efficient market hypothesis.

This paper validates the monetary model in the determination of the dollar-yen exchange rate by applying cointegration methodology. Estimation results indicate a stationary relationship between the dollar-yen exchange rate and monetary models, with long-term causality flowing from monetary variables to the dollar-yen exchange rate. The forecasting performance of the monetary model based on the error-correction model outperforms random walk models.

Using the notion of co-integration theory and a vector error correction modelling approach, this paper examines in retrospect the long-run relationship between the exchange rate of silver-based currencies and the intrinsic value of silver in India and Iran in a bivariate model. The results based on unit root and co-integration tests indicate a reliable long-run relationship between the price of silver and the exchange rate of silver-based currencies. Our findings also suggest a bidirectional relationship between the price of silver and exchange rate of pound per rupee in the case of India and a feedback relationship between the intrinsic value of qiran and the exchange rate of pound per qiran in the case of Iran.

This study empirically examines the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis using more than a century span of annual data of Australia, Canada and Britain and a battery of unit root tests. The study finds support for the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis in the long-run within the framework of both linear and non-linear cointegration tests. The error correction models indicate that it takes four to five years for the short-run deviations from PPP to revert back to the long-run equilibrium. The results also indicate a non-linear mean reversion behaviour in the case of Canada. Overall, the evidence of support for the PPP hypothesis is robust across specifications and testing procedures.

This paper examines the empirical characteristics of target–goal relationships between M0 on the one hand, and output, prices, interest rates and the current account balance on the other hand, in terms of a good intermediate target and informational variable. The results of a five-variate vector error correction model are indicative of feedback relationships between M0 and output, prices and output, and prices and M0, which is consistent with the Keynesian ‘monetary accommodation' hypothesis. The finding of a reverse causality from output, prices and interest rates to M0 suggests that M0 may not serve well as a good intermediate target and informational variable of British monetary policy. The evidence therefore suggests the reduced effectiveness of monetary targeting strategy as a stabilization tool.

This study re-examines and reinterprets the empirical results of Brooks et al. (1999) which investigated the lead-lag relationship between stock indices and stock index futures markets. Contrary to the contention of Brooks et al. that the stock index futures market leads the stock market, it is found that their linear Granger causality tests exhibit overwhelming evidence of a contemporaneous relationship and a bidirectional relationship between spot and futures returns. The interpretation of the empirical evidence of Brooks et al., although different from theirs, is equally supportive of the theoretical predictions of the cost-of-carry model and the efficient market hypothesis.

This paper employs a battery of statistical tests to examine the random walk variant of the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) using the daily data of the Dhaka Stock Exchange, the major equity market of Bangladesh, over a period of January 1990 to December 2000. The test results, however, are at variance across testing procedures and sub-periods. Results based on the random walk model and unit root tests show that the null hypothesis of randomness cannot be rejected and stock prices have a significant random walk or permanent component. Our analysis of autocorrelation functions indicates mean-reversion behavior of stock returns in most cases albeit with stock returns exhibiting some memory and predictable components during the bubble and post-speculation periods. The evaluation of the EGARCH-M model suggests significant asymmetric and leverage effects during the sub-period of speculative bubbles of 1996–1997. The BDS test indicates evidence of nonlinear long-term dependence during the pre-speculation period, while during the speculation and post-speculation periods the null hypothesis of nonlinear independence was not rejected. Overall, based on this evidence we do not categorically claim that the Dhaka Stock Exchange is weak-form efficient. However, these findings underscore the predictive significance and relevance of the random walk hypothesis as a generalized theory in explaining movements of share prices.

This paper empirically examines the long-run behaviour of the real exchange rate in colonial India between the British pound and the Indian rupee using a battery of unit root tests. The unit root tests based on the KPSS test, the GPH fractional integration test, and the non-linear KSS test indicate that the real exchange rate series is stationary and mean-reverting, which tends to support the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis in the long run.

Using the notions of unit root, cointegration theory and Granger-Akaike’s synthesis of modelling strategy, this paper examines the nature of stationarities, cointegration properties and Granger causal relationship between domestic savings and aid based on a sample of 27 developing countries. The KPSS unit root test results indicate that variables of interest in a trivariate vector autoregressive system such as aid inflows, domestic savings and income exhibit a dissimilar trend in the majority of countries, with the exceptions of Bolivia and Korea. The cointegration test results based on the Johansen and Juselius testing procedure found evidence of cointegration among the variables, domestic savings, aid and income in Bolivia and Korea. However, the presence and direction of causality between aid inflows and domestic savings are mixed across countries. Whilst the findings are indicative of a causal independence in a majority of the cases, little support is attached to either Griffin’s dependency hypothesis or Papaneck’s reverse causality hypothesis.

This paper empirically examines the relationship between UK macroeconomic variables and residential investment over the period 1968Q1 to 1999Q1. The impact of macroeconomic variables are evaluated by computing both historical decompositions (HDCs) and variance decompositions (VDCs) in a six-variable VAR model. The VDC results suggest fiscal policy variable exerts a modest and significant impact on residential expenditures, monetary policy variables appear to have larger and perceptible influences on residential expenditures in the long run. The HDC findings, on the other hand, indicate that money stock marginally lowers the MSE of base projection of residential investment over the pre-deregulation period. Nevertheless, the explanatory power of money is shown to evaporate during the post-deregulation period. Thus, our findings strongly confirm that the deregulatory measures of 1980s have significantly altered the nature and strength of causal linkages between residential investment and macroeconomic variables.

This paper investigates the behaviour of the currency-deposit ratio in mainland China in the light of three theoretically identified factors: income growth, interest rate movements and inflationary expectations. It was found that the unprecedented decline in the currency-deposit ratio is unambiguously determined by a secular growth in income, whilst the role of interest rates and inflationary expectations is at variance across specifications and sample period. However, the observed variation of the currency-deposit ratio attributed primarily to income and secondarily to interest rates make the money multiplier endogenous.

Using the notion of cointegration theory and its implied vector error correction modeling strategy, this paper reexamines the relationship between monetary forces and inflation in mainland China. Contrary to most recent research in this area, these results based on unit root and cointegration tests indicate a reliable long-run relationship between the general price level and the money stock, as well as between inflation and monetary growth. Our findings also suggest a bi-directional or feedback relationship between inflation and monetary growth

The paper re-examines empirically the causal relationship between money stock, prices and wages in the United Kingdom. Using a vector error-correction modelling technique with suitable diagnostics, such as Akaike's FPE statistics and `F' tests for under-fitting the causal model, the results indicate a feedback relationship between money and prices, prices and wages, and wages and money stock. The results are supportive of the expectations- augmented Phillips-curve view of inflation and the monetary accommodation hypothesis.

This paper re-examines the relationship between alternative monetary aggregates (MO and M4) and other macroeconomic variables in the United Kingdom. The results of a five-variable VAR analysis are indicative of bidirectional causality between each of the monetary aggregates and real output. Our findings of a feedback relationship between MO-real income, and M4-real income makes each of the monetary aggregates a poor intermediate target variable. Moreover, contrary to most research work in this area, we find a feedback relationship between MO and prices which appears to support the monetary accomodation hypothesis.

Proposes to re-examine empirically the causal relationship between defence spending and economic growth in mainland China. First, using a VAR modelling technique with suitable diagnostics, e.g. Akaike’s FPE statistics and a likelihood ratio test for over- and under-fitting the causal model, the results indicate a positive unidirectional causality flowing from defence spending to economic growth. Second, by evaluating a dynamic vector error-correction model, variance decomposition and impulse response functions, then analyses the direction, duration and strength of Granger-causality between defence spending and economic growth. The results broadly indicate that defence spending and economic growth did share a common trend over the sample period under analysis, but it was the former which stimulated the latter. Moreover, it is defence spending that has a much more perceptible and prolonged effect on economic growth, giving rise to implications that although expenditure on defence may have been politically motivated, over the long-run this spending did play a significant indirect role in enhancing the growth potential of this, for many years, closed-door economy.

Using a hybrid of cointegration theory and Granger-Akaike's synthesis of modelling strategy, we have reexamined the causal relationship between tax revenue and government spending in the UK in a cointegrated VAR model. The results are indicative of a bi-directional causality between revenue and spending.

This paper re-examines the relationship between money and other macroeconomic variables in mainland China. The results of a four-variable VAR analysis are indicative of a bi-directional causality between narrow money supply and real income. However, contrary to most research work in this area, the findings support a uni-directional causality from broad money to real income, making the former a good intermediate target variable. Moreover, these results cast serious doubts about the relevance of the quantity theory of money for price determination in China.