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Our Academic and Professional Team

Professor Cecilio Mar Molinero Professor in Management Science

Profile sections

Teaching Group: Management Science & Operations

Room: 212

Extension: 4554

Email: C.Mar-molinero@kent.ac.uk

Office hours:
On Study leave during Autumn Term
Research interests
  • The interface between Operational Research and Statistics
  • I have worked recently in efficiency analysis, particularly in the area of Data Envelopment Analysis, where I have developed models for input/output selection, ranking of units, and interpretation of the impact of the presence or absence of an input/output on the final results. This I have applied to the efficiency of bank branches, to the efficiency of microfinance institutions, and to the assessment of insurance risk. More theoretical work in this area involves specialisation versus diversification in the context of efficiency analysis, and models for the assessment of efficiency under centralised management
  • My work in Statistics is mainly in the application of Multivariate Methods to the analysis of social problems. On-going work includes the impact of the right to buy council houses within the social structure of a community; school results within a social context; the application of the methods of optimal scaling to the analysis of Internal Labour Markets in a Spanish railway company in the 19th Century; and structural equation models in the assessment of e-commerce.
Research supervisees

Anabela Soares

Research area: Supply Chain Quality Management

 

Aijie Xie
Research area: Changes in Housing Structure in Canterbury as Reflected Through the 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses

 

Huiling Zhao
Research area: Education in Kent
Past research supervisees

Li Qi
Research area: Performance Management and Efficiency Analysis for Companies

Ross Wyatt
Research area: DEA Models
Publications
Also view these in the Kent Academic Repository
Book Sections
Articles

    Mar-Molinero, C. and Serrano-Cinca, C. and Fuertes-Callen, Y. (2010) A Structural Model for Sales in the E-retailing Industry. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 61 (9). pp. 1377-1388. ISSN 0160-5682.

    Abstract

    This article analyses intangible constructs that affect sales on the Internet retailing industry. We suggest an explanatory model for the success of retailers that operate on the Internet. Non-financial information has been used to identify several intangible constructs: 'web traffic generation', 'relevance in search engines', 'link popularity', and 'blogs popularity'. The success is measured through items derived from financial statements: sales and profits. The model has been built within a structural modelling framework. It has been estimated using Partial Least Squares with a sample of USA e-tailers. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the intangible constructs and accounting figures. This relationship is stronger when we consider Sales from Internet Operations rather than Total Sales or Net Profit.

    Mar-Molinero, C. and Segovia, M. and Contreras, I. (2009) A DEA Analysis of Risk, Cost, and Revenues in Insurance. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60 (11). pp. 1483-1494. ISSN 0160-5682.

    Abstract

    Insurance companies have to take risk and cost into account when pricing car insurance policies that cover the risk of private use of cars. In this paper we use data from 80 000 car insurance policies in order to assess, once risk and cost have been taken into account, the combinations of risk that generate the highest returns for the company under existing pricing practices. We use data envelopment analysis (DEA) and frame the study within an analysis of experiments context. The results of DEA are interpreted in a multivariate statistical analysis context using factor analysis, and property fitting techniques. The impact of risk factors in the efficiency is explored by means of regression analysis with dummy variables. There are consequences for the pricing policy of the company.

    pdf
    Mar-Molinero, C. and Segovia, M. and Contreras, I. (2009) Efficiency Assessment in the Automobile Insurance Sector. Revista de Metodos Cuantitativos Para la Economia y la Empresa, 7. pp. 57-76. ISSN 1886-516X.

    Abstract

    Insurance companies have to take risk and cost into account when pricing car insurance policies in order to design new products to cover the risk of private use of cars. In this paper we use data from 80,000 car insurance policies in order to assess, once risk and cost have been taken into account, the policies that generate the highest returns for the company. After different profiles of clients are identified, including among the characteristics the regional location of the clients, we use Data Envelopment Analysis and multivariate statistics. The results obtained not only permit us to identify the best groups of clients for the company but also to determine similarities and differences among profiles of clients.

    Mar-Molinero, C. and Gutierrez-Nieto, B. and Serrano-Cinca, C. (2009) Social Efficiency in Microfinance Institutions. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60. pp. 104-119. ISSN 0160-5682.

    Abstract

    Microfinance institutions (MFIs) are a special case in the financial world. They have a double financial and social role and need to be efficient at both. In this paper, we try to measure the efficiency of MFIs in relation to financial and social outputs using data envelopment analysis. For the analysis of financial efficiency, we rely on existing literature for traditional financial institutions. To this we have added two indicators of social performance: impact on women and a poverty reach index. We have studied the relationship between social and financial efficiency, and the relationship between efficiency and other indicators, such as profitability. Other aspects studied are the relation between social efficiency and type of institution-Non-Governmental Organization (NGO)-, non-NGO, and the importance of geographical region of activity. The results reveal the importance of social efficiency assessment.

    De Vinaspre, F.P.P. and Molinero, C.Mar (2008) Internal Labour Markets in the Spanish Railway Company MZA 1882-1889. Revista De Historia Economica, 26 (1). pp. 109-136. ISSN 0212-6109.

    Abstract

    The possible existence of Internal Labour Markets (ILMs) in the Spanish railway company MZA at the beginning of the Second Industrial Revolution is explored by means of non-linear Optimal Scaling techniques. The results show the presence of two characteristics of ILMs predicted by the theory: the existence of "ports of entry" for the employees of the company at low levels of qualification, and the presence of long-term labour relations. Thus, in common with recent studies on UK railway companies, we conclude that the company MZA operated some kind of ILM before the start of the 20(th) Century.

    Mar-Molinero, C. and Mingers, John (2007) An evaluation of the limitations of, and alternatives to, the Co-Plot methodology. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 58 (7). pp. 874-886. ISSN 0160-5682.

    Abstract

    The Co-Plot technique has become stereotyped in the form of a series of steps that are automatically followed with little regard for the characteristics of the data and the type of analysis it supports. While there are obvious extensions to this type of analysis, the methodology has remained unchanged over many years. Here we argue that the application of the Co-Plot to binary, nominal data, as is done in published papers, is inappropriate. We frame the Co-Plot in the general literature of multivariate analysis in order to show that it is a simplification of standard multivariate methods. We use a recently published example on mapping MBA programmes to show how a similar, although more statistically appropriate, analysis based on multidimensional scaling methods produces very different results.

    Gutierrez-Nieto, B. and Serrano-Cinca, C. and Mar-Molinero, C. (2007) Microfinance institutions and efficiency. Omega-International Journal of Management Science, 35 (2). pp. 131-142. ISSN 0305-0483.

    Abstract

    Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) are special financial institutions. They have both a social nature and a for-profit nature. Their performance has been traditionally measured by means of financial ratios. The paper goes beyond simple financial ratios using a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to measure the efficiency of MFIs. Special care is taken in the specification of the DEA model. We take a methodological approach based on multivariate analysis. We rank DEA efficiencies under different models and specifications; e.g. particular sets of inputs and outputs. This serves to explore what is behind a DEA score. The results show that we can explain MFIs efficiency by means of four principal components of efficiency, and this way we are able to understand differences between DEA scores. It is shown that there are country effects on efficiency; and effects that depend on non-governmental organization (NGO)/non-NGO status of the MFI.

    Mar-Molinero, C. and Xie, A. (2007) What do UK employers want from OR/MS? Journal of the Operational Research Society, 58 (12). pp. 1543-1553. ISSN 0160-5682.

    Abstract

    Over 500 job advertisements in the Newsletter of the Operational Research Society are analysed to explore the skills that employers want from students and the tasks that such students are expected to perform in their jobs. There are consequences for the content of Operational Research and Management Science degrees.

    Molinero, C. Mar and Mingers, J. (2006) Mapping MBA Programmes: An Alternate Analysis. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 58. pp. 874-886.

    Molinero, C. Mar and Bishop, H. and Turner, M. (2005) The Distress of Marks and Spencers PLC in 2001: A Multidimensional Scaling Analysis. Cuadernos De Estudios Empresariales, 15. pp. 107-126. ISSN 1131-6985.

    Molinero, C. Mar and Cinca, C. Serrano and Gallizo, J.L. (2005) Country and Size Effects in Financial Ratios: A European Perspective. Global Finance Journal, 16 (1). pp. 26 - 47. ISSN 1044-0283.

    Abstract

    Harmonised aggregate financial statements are published by the European Commission in the BACH database. This information is organised by country, size of firm, and year. Financial ratios obtained from this database are analysed using multivariate statistical techniques in order to explore country and size effects. The data relates to three size groups, eleven countries, fourteen years, and fifteen financial and economic ratios. It is found that ratios reflect the size of the firm, but that the way in which this is reflected varies between the different countries. It is also found that there are no significant size related differences in financial profitability, but that such differences appear when countries are compared

    Molinero, C. Mar and Fuertes, Y. and Cinca, C. Serrano (2005) Measuring DEA Efficiency in Internet companies. Decision Support Systems, 38 (4). pp. 557-573. ISSN 0167-9236.

    Abstract

    This paper uses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a non-parametric approach to the estimation of production functions, in order to assess efficiency in dot com firms. These firms have two objectives: to make an impact in the Internet and to obtain revenues from their activities. For this reason, the outputs have been two: unique visitors—a web metric—and revenues. DEA efficiencies have been obtained under various input/output combinations. A ranking of dot com firms in terms of relative efficiency has been obtained. A method based on multivariate analysis has been proven to be successful at showing the strengths and weaknesses of individual dot com firms. It is shown that there is a relationship between the type of e-business (e-tailers, search/portal, content/communities), and the way in which efficiency is obtained. The paper suggests a new approach to the problem of deciding which inputs and outputs the model should contain.

    Molinero, C. Mar and Cinca, C. Serrano (2004) Selecting DEA Specifications and Ranking Units via PCA. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 55 (5). pp. 521-528. ISSN 0160-5682.

    Molinero, C. Mar and Neophytou, E. (2004) Predicting Corporate Failure in the UK: A Multidimensional Scaling Approach. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 31 (5 & 6). pp. 677-710. ISSN 0306-686X.

    Molinero, C. Mar and Serrano, C and Chaparro, F. (2004) Spanish Savings Banks: A View on Intangibles. Knowledge Management Research & Practice, 2 (2). pp. 103-117. ISSN 1477-8238.

    Molinero, C.Mar and Serrano, C and Queiroz, A. Bossi (2003) An Approach to the Measurement of Intangible Assets in Public Sector Using Scaling Techniques. Jornal of Intellectual Capital, 4 (2). pp. 249-275. ISSN 1469-1930.

    Abstract

    This paper discusses the identification and measurement of intangible assets in the public sector. A discussion of intellectual capital theory identifies and classifies a number of intangible assets of relevance to the public sector. Multidimensional scaling and related multivariate techniques are proposed for their detection and quantification. The methodology is illustrated with a case study: the provision of council services through the Internet by Spanish municipalities. The technique identifies three intangible assets related to external structural capital: service, image and transparency. Five strategic groups reveal the different objectives, strategic use of the Internet, and actions taken by the various Spanish councils

    Molinero, C. Mar and Serrano, C and Gallizo, J.L. (2002) A Multivariate Study of the EU Economy Via Financial Statements Analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 51 (3). pp. 335-354. ISSN 0039-0526.

    Molinero, C. Mar and Tsai, P.F (2002) A Variable Returns to Scale Date Envelopment Analysis Model for the Joint Determination of Efficiencies with an Example of the UK Health Service. The European Journal of operational Research, 141. pp. 21-38. ISSN 0377-2217.

    Abstract

    "Develops a model for efficiency for the case of joint production functions. This is the first DEA model in quadratic programming formulation. There is much research going on that uses it, but little has been published as now, since there is no standard so"

    Molinero, C.Mar (2001) La Evolucion De Las Universidades Britanicas (Trends in British Universities). Revista de Educacion (Spanish Journal of Education), 324. pp. 185-195.

    Abstract

    This paper reviews the history of the management of British universities as from the seventies, explaining the changes that have taken place since then, discussing the causes and evaluating their social consequences. The fundamental proposition of this paper is that the confluence of an economic crisis and a fall of birth rates was accompanied by a change of outlook in education management, going on to a neo-liberal stage featuring a blind faith in the market and the assumption that the state is inefficient in terms of providing services. It is suggested that the steps taken then to create internal markets in the education system contributed to transform what was a class-based system into an even more class-based system. The implications for the international image of British universities are also discussed. No hope is given regarding the creation of a fairer society with equal opportunities.

    Molinero, C.Mar and Martinez, S.Mendez and Valles, R.Escuder (2001) An Application of Resampling Methods to the Auditing of Financial Statements. Estadistica Espanola, 43 (147). pp. 45-61. ISSN 00141151.

    Molinero, C.Mar and Cinca, C. Serrano (2001) Bank Failure: A Multidimensional Scaling Approach. European Journal of Finance, 7 (2). pp. 165-183. ISSN 1351-847X.

    Abstract

    Mathematical models for the prediction of company failure are by now well established. Most of the work on multivariate modelling of distress prediction attempts to obtain a score that gives the failure probability of a company. A data set of 66 Spanish banks, 29 of which failed, is used to show that multidimensional scaling (MDS) techniques can be of use to produce simple tools for the analysis of financial health. MDS has the advantage of producing pictorial representations that are easy to interpret and use. This is done without loss of statistical rigour given the very close links between MDS and other multivariate statistical techniques that are normally used in the analysis of failure. As an example, the technique is used to trace the financial path of an ailing bank.

    Molinero, C.Mar and Avraamides, A. (2000) The Ex-dividend Drop in Share Prices: A Review of the Issues. The University of Piraeus Journal of Economics, Business, 50. pp. 3-39. ISSN 1105-8919.

    Molinero, C.Mar and Mancebon, M.J (2000) Performance in Primary Schools. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 51 (7). pp. 843-854. ISSN 0160-5682.

    Abstract

    Data for this paper was collected from the OFSTED database on Hampshire primary schools. The schools in Southampton and Porstmouth were used in order to assess the factors that influence their productive efficiency. The data set included 19 variables on 176 schools and was analysed by means of Data Envelopment Analysis. Contextual variables, not included in the efficiency analysis, were used to explain the sources of inefficiency. It was found that religious orientation, parental influence and level of exclusions all impacted on the ability of a school to deliver the best possible results in standard assessment tests. This study is set within local and national priorities in education.

Monographs

    pdf
    Mar-Molinero, C. (2008) Non-homogeneity in Data Envelopment Analysis. working_paper. University of Kent Canterbury, Canterbury

    Abstract

    Data Envelopment Analysis requires all the units that are being compared to be homogeneous. One of the homogeneity requirements is that they all share the same inputs and outputs. In practice this is often not the case, as some units carry out more activities than others and may use more inputs to create more outputs than the rest. In an extreme case, some Decision Making Units (DMUs) may specialise in a single activity while others may aim for diversification. We present a new model that can estimate efficiencies for the various activities, even when some DMUs do not engage in some of the activities and do not share the same set of inputs/outputs with the remaining DMUS. The model is demonstrated with some data from the literature.

    pdf
    Mar-Molinero, C. and Portillo, F. and Hayes, R. (2007) Analysing the Success of a MBA programme. working_paper. Kent Business School, University of Kent, Canterbury

    pdf
    Molinero, C. Mar and Serrano-Cinca, C and Callen, Y. Fuertes (2006) A Structural Model for Revenues in E-Commerce. working_paper. KBS

    pdf
    Molinero, C. Mar and Portillo, F. and Vara, T. Martinez (2006) Interpreting a Data Base of Railway Workers using Optimal Scaling Techniques. working_paper. KBS, Canterbury

    pdf
    Molinero, C. Mar and Gutierrez-Nieto, B. and Serrano-Cinca, C (2006) Social Efficiency in Microfinance Institutions. working_paper. KBS, Canterbury

    pdf
    Molinero, C. Mar and Prior, C. (2006) On Centralised Resource Allocation Using DEA. working_paper. KBS

    pdf
    Molinero, C. Mar and Cinca, C. Serrano and Callen, Y. Fuertes (2006) Disecting Banking Dea Efficiency. working_paper. KBS, Canterbury

    pdf
    Molinero, C. Mar and Herrera, M.I. (2005) The Good, The Bad, and the Dentist. working_paper. kbs

    pdf
    Mingers, J. and Mar-Molinero, C. (2005) Modeling Citation Behaviour in Management Science Journals. working_paper. University of Kent Canterbury, Canterbury

    Abstract

    Citation rates are becoming increasingly important in judging the research quality of journals, institutions and departments, and individual faculty. This paper looks at the pattern of citations across different management science journals and over time. A stochastic model is proposed which views the generating mechanism of citations as a gamma mixture of Poisson processes generating overall a negative binomial distribution. This is tested empirically with a large sample of papers published in 1990 from six management science journals and found to fit well. The model is extended to include obsolescence, i.e., that the citation rate for a paper varies over its cited lifetime. This leads to the additional citations distribution which shows that future citations are a linear function of past citations with a time-dependent and decreasing slope. This is also verified empirically in a way that allows different obsolescence functions to be fitted to the data. Conclusions concerning the predictability of future citations, and future research in this area are discussed.

    pdf
    Molinero, C. Mar and Xie, A. (2005) What do UK Employers Want From OR/MS? working_paper. KBS

    pdf
    Molinero, C. Mar and Neophytou, Evi (2005) Financial Ratios, Size, Industry and Interest Rate Issues in Company Failure: An Extended Multidimensional Scaling Analysis. working_paper. kbs

    Abstract

    Three-way multidimensional scaling methods are used to study the differences between UK failed and continuing companies from 1993 to 2001. The technique allows for visual representations of the results, so that qualitative information can be brought to bear when judging the health of a company. It is shown that it is important to take into account company size and area of activity. Results also suggest that the ratio structure of the companies varies between years in response to changes in the interest rates, suggesting that the frontier between failing and continuing firms moves in response to the economic cycle.

Total publications in KAR: 37 [See all in KAR]
Information obtained from the Kent Academic Repository. The University of Kent official repository of academic activity.
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Last Updated: 15/11/2011