Room S50
London School of Economics
6th-8th July 2005
There is a clear connection between probability and logic: both appear to tell us how we should reason. But how, exactly, are the two concepts related? Objective Bayesianism offers one answer to this question. According to objective Bayesianism, probability generalises deductive logic: deductive logic tells us which conclusions are certain, given a set of premises, while probability tells us the extent to which one should believe a conclusion, given the premises (certain conclusions being awarded full degree of belief). According to objective Bayesianism, the premises objectively (i.e. uniquely) determine the degree to which one should believe a conclusion.
The aim of this workshop is to explore the connections between probability and logic, and in particular to evaluate aspects of the connection forged by objective Bayesianism. The workshop is intended to be interdisciplinary: the themes of the workshop are relevant to mathematicians, logicians, philosophers, computer scientists, statisticians, psychologists and engineers, for example.
Selected papers will be published in a special issue of the Journal of Logic, Language and Information.
Authors: if you would like a link here to an online copy of your paper, please email Jon Williamson with the URL.
Wednesday 6th July
09.00
Welcome
09.15 - 10.15 Invited speaker - John
Worrall : The prospects for objective Bayesianism as an account of the
rationality of theory-change in science
10.15 - 11.00 Wolfgang de
Melo & James Cussens :
Leibniz on estimating the uncertain
coffee
11.30 - 12.15 Martin Poulter : Deduction is like
induction, only more so
12.15 - 13.00 Rolf
Haenni : Unifying logical and
probabilistic reasoning (Slides)
lunch
14.30 -
15.15 Jesse Hughes : Means-end relations and a
measure of efficacy* (Slides
)
15.15 -
16.00 Federica Russo : Many
advantages of empirically-based Bayesianism
(Slides
)
coffee
16.30 - 17.15 Darrell Patrick Rowbottom: An
overdue divorce: on the tempestuous relationship between logic and
probability
17.15 - 18.00 John
Welch : Vagueness and Inductive Moulding (Abstract )
18.15 - 20.00 workshop meal - Sarastro
pub
Thursday 7th July
09.15 - 10.15 Invited speaker - Jim Berger :
Objective Bayesian statistical inference (Slides
)
10.15 - 11.00 Robin Hanson : Uncommon priors require
origin disputes (Slides)
coffee
11.30 - 12.15 Richard
Bradley : Adams conditionals and non-monotonic
probabilities (Slides )
12.15 -
13.00 Borek
Puza : Four excercises in Bayesian inference* (Slides )
lunch
14.30 - 15.15 Frank Coolen : On nonparametric predictive inference and objective
Bayesianism
15.15 - 16.00 John Howard :
Significance testing with no alternative hypothesis (Slides
)
coffee
16.30 -
17.15 Sylvia Nagl : Objective Bayesian approaches to
biological complexity in cancer (Slides
)
17.15 -
18.00 Matt
Williams & Jon
Williamson : Combining argumentation and
Bayesian nets for breast cancer prognosis (Slides)
Friday 8th July
09.30 - 10.15 Jukka Corander: Bayesian model
learning based on predictive entropy
10.15 - 11.00 Gregory Wheeler : Rational
acceptance and conjunctive / disjunctive absorption
coffee
11.30 - 12.15 Rodolfo
de Cristofaro : Statistical
inference from a logical viewpoint
12.15 -
13.00 Prasanta S.
Bandyopadhyay : Two dogmas of Objective
Bayesianism *
lunch
14.15 - 15.15 Invited speaker - Phil Dawid : Bayesian objections to objective
Bayesianism (Slides
)
15.15 - 16.00 Andrea L'Episcopo :
Relevance in probability theory and Bayesian networks
coffee
16.30 - 17.15
Jan-Willem Romeijn: The reach of Bayesian updates (Slides
)
17.15 - 18.00 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey: Quantum physical symbol systems (Slides)
* joint work with other authors.
ATTENDANCE
If you would like to attend the workshop and are not a speaker, please send an email to Jon Williamson (email: j.williamson) at the London School of Economics (lse.ac.uk), giving
Attendance is free.
DATES
21 March 2005 - Deadline for submission of papers
25 April 2005 - Notification of acceptance for presentation
3 June 2005 - Deadline for registration at the workshop
6-8 July 2005 - Workshop
18 July 2005 - Notification of acceptance for publication
1 August 2005 - Deadline for camera-ready copy of papers accepted for publication
A discussion of the challenges facing objective Bayesianism can be found here. Relevant books include:
Objective Bayesian methods are now increasingly used in statistics: non-subjective Bayesian statistical methodology.
LOCAL INFORMATION
This is an informal workshop and participants are expected to make their own arrangements for travel, accommodation, meals etc, though we will plan a meal together on 6th July.
Accommodation:
London is quite expensive for accommodation, but the following alternatives are at the lower end of the price range:
More expensive options include:
Food:
Recreation:
PROGIC 2002
The first workshop on Combining Probability and Logic was held at King's College London on 4th-6th November 2002, as part of the Augustus de Morgan series of workshops. It was supported by the London Mathematical Society, the British Society for the Philosophy of Science and the British Logic Colloquium. Papers were published in a special issue of the Journal of Applied Logic, volume 1(3-4), 2003.
Progic 2005 is being organised by Jon Williamson.
I am very grateful to
the British Society
for the Philosophy of Science
and the LSE Centre for Philosophy of Natural
and Social Science
for
supporting this workshop.
This page was last updated: 28 July 2005
PHOTOS
Thanks to Borek Puza for the following pictures:
