On the week of the 5th anniversary of the UK ceasing to be a member of the European Union (Friday 31 January), Professor Richard Whitman from Kent’s School of Economics, Politics and International Relations has contributed to UK in a Changing Europe’s latest research-based analysis report ‘The Brexit Files From Referendum To Reset.’ Within his reflection of how the UK has managed its foreign policy over the past five years, Professor Whitman looks at the current Labour government’s EU relations and how Trump’s presidency may affect the UK’s foreign policy moving forward. Professor Whitman says:
‘With the exception of its emphasis on a reset in its relationship with the EU, the Labour government has maintained the same broad foreign policy stances as its predecessor. This is especially true of the post-Brexit relationship with the United States.
‘The Trump Presidency will present significant complications for UK foreign policy. The UK’s desire to significantly improve its relationship with the EU will likely sit uneasily with the preoccupations of a second-term President Trump, who has an unsubtle dislike of the EU. The expectation that Trump will impose trade tariffs poses the question as to whether the UK will be targeted or be offered a special deal.
‘Trump’s declared position of seeking to impose a swift ceasefire in Russia’s war on Ukraine is also at odds with the UK position of supporting Ukraine to succeed on the battlefield. And the expectation that Trump’s administration will present challenges to NATO, through a more conditional approach to US defence commitments to Europe, sits uncomfortably with the UK stance that the alliance is the cornerstone of European security. The Labour government’s attempt to improve the relationship with China may well also be significantly challenged by an administration that views Beijing as its major rival.
‘In the five years since Brexit, the UK’s foreign policy has moved from focusing on the world beyond Europe, to returning its attention primarily to said continent. Russia’s war on Ukraine has upended the European security order, while the incoming Trump presidency might question the US commitment to European security. And having sought to distance the UK from the EU, more recently British governments have sought to increase coordination and stress their shared interests. The degree to which this proves possible will be one of the more significant tests of Starmer’s foreign policy.’
Professor Richard Whitman’s full essay titled ‘Brexit Impact: Foreign Policy’ can be read in the UK in a Changing Europe ‘The Brexit Files From Referendum To Reset’ report.
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