The University’s Professor Feargal Cochrane, a conflict analysis specialist, comments on the EU’s response to the UK’s proposals for the Irish border: ‘The UK’s Brexit ‘policy’ is beginning to disintegrate.’
‘Moreover it is falling apart at the very point it needs to be gathering momentum and coherence as we enter the latter stages of the negotiation process. I put policy in inverted commas above, because the UK approach to Brexit is barely a policy, more a set of positions that blow around in response to every light breeze that wafts towards the UK government.
‘Yesterday the EU rejected all of the UK’s propositions on the Irish border in what has been described as a ‘detailed and forensic rebuttal’. The ‘customs partnership’ option, where the UK would effectively act as the EU tax collector for goods coming through the UK into the EU was rejected on the grounds of cost but also as a matter of principle, as the EU could not allow a non-member, beyond its authority, to act in this way.
‘The UK’s second option was also politely rubbished. This suggested a ‘customs arrangement’ that would use technology and bespoke administrative systems to enable a remote control border in Ireland, while allowing smaller traders to operate across the Irish border unchecked.
‘One of the reasons the EU rejected this was that it would set a precedent for other EU countries and would significantly compromise the EU’s borders. The idea of an electronic border in Ireland has for some time been rejected by the Irish government and by Brussels itself as being unworkable, but the UK still don’t seem to have accepted that it is a political non-runner.
‘We are now approaching the crunch point and the UK approach seems to be based on trying to push the detail of how things will work after Brexit into the transitional phase in order to get a headline deal with the EU. The EU and Ireland in particular, want clear and unambiguous guarantees upfront that the UK can’t wriggle out of before moving to any such agreement. And the clock ticks inexorably onwards towards March 2019 when the UK is due to leave the EU.
‘This brings to mind day one of the negotiations when Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union David Davis turned up with both hands the same length, a big smile on his face and no notes in front of him, while his EU counterparts sat with thick files of paperwork in front of them and a steely look in their eyes.
‘We are now seeing the outcome of these different negotiating styles. The UK’s approach, to plough on regardless, and hope that if you repeat something often enough it will come true, has been blown out of the water by the EU’s insistence that workable solutions to ensure the protection of the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland (specifically to avoid a hard border in Ireland) must be brought forward. Yesterday they determined that the UK position on leaving the Customs Union while avoiding a hard border was not workable. These are serious people and they were never going to be convinced by good old British bonhomie without a clear set of workable policies to back it up.
‘The White Queen in Alice in Wonderland once said: ‘why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast’. This mindset is great for children’s fantasy novels but we are finding out that it is less useful as a means of negotiating with bureaucrats.
‘Back in the real world, the UK government cannot just close its eyes tight and wish things to come true, its options (and ours) are stark now and it has squandered any trust that could have been built –certainly from Dublin and Brussels. There is exasperation in both of these camps that when the UK signs up to something on a Monday it then tries to wriggle out of it on a Tuesday.
‘The UK government will have to choose now between ‘Brexit not actually meaning Brexit’ after all (by staying in the Customs Union) and a hard border in Ireland. The former may be the last stage for the Brexiteers in the Conservative Party and bring down the government. The latter might destroy any chance of a deal with the EU, cause political and economic turmoil within GB, a diplomatic rift with Ireland and damage the Good Friday Agreement. A smooth outcome or a more optimistic alternative is difficult to envisage.’
Professor Feargal Cochrane
Feargal Cochrane is vice chair of the Political Studies Association and professor of International Conflict Analysis at the University of Kent. He is director of the Conflict Analysis Research Centre and deputy head of the School of Politics and International Relations at Kent. His current research is examining the impact of Brexit on the peace process in Northern Ireland and its devolved institutions.
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