Following the confirmation that Donald Trump has won a second term as president of the United States, Dr Andrew Wroe, an expert in US Politics at Kent’s School of Politics and International Relations, said:
‘In both 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Donald Trump’s support. The 2024 polls were more accurate, but it still looks like Trump has outperformed them by a couple of percentage points. And he’s done it where it matters most: the key swing or “battleground” states.
‘Trump’s second-coming will likely mean more division for the United States. Trump will govern with his gut and may try to enact retribution on those he thinks wronged him. It will likely prove a very destabilising time for the United States. Trump will pursue some dramatically different policy options than the Biden administration, although enacting them all to the full extent of his rhetoric will be difficult. For example, he’s talked about deporting millions of illegal immigrants. That’s going to be tricky to pull off for many reasons, but he might try. Regardless of his success in doing so, the next four years are going to be a very challenging, divisive time for America.
‘Trump’s presidency could destabilise foreign policy too. He tried to withdraw from NATO during his first term but was persuaded against it by key advisors, who were more traditionally conservative than Trump. But those advisors have largely departed and he’s surrounded by acolytes and MAGA advocates. If he does withdraw from NATO, or even become a ‘sleeping partner’ in NATO, that could fundamentally destabilise the international security architecture, which has guaranteed security in Europe since World War 2. American support for Ukraine is going to wither, for example, and he hasn’t shown much interest in pursuing a peace deal in the Israel-Gaza conflict.’