School of Economics

Macroeconomics, Growth and History Centre (MaGHiC)



About the Centre

Tree RingsThe Macroeconomics, Growth and History Centre (MaGHiC) brings together a large group of researchers at the School of Economics whose main interests lie in the wide area of macroeconomics. MaGHiC is the focal point for macroeconomic research, impact and training at the University of Kent.

The centre's main focus is on the analysis of macroeconomic issues, including productivity and growth, labour markets, income distribution, business cycles and macroeconomic phenomena from a historical perspective. The group also has technical strength in computational economics, macroeconometric modelling and forecasting, and expertise in building long-run macroeconomic time series and reconstructing historical national accounts.

MaGHiC members have a wide range of expertise in policy-relevant research. Several of its members have been consultants for policy institutions such as the Asian Development Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, the Bank for International Settlements and the European Commission. We offer advanced training at PhD level, as well as consultancy and training services for both the private sector and policy institutions.


Members


Directors

  Name Title Specialist research areas
Miguel León-Ledesma Professor Miguel León-Ledesma Director
Professor of Economics
Growth, technology and business cycles, international macroeconomics, econometrics
Alex Klein Dr Alex Klein Deputy Director
Lecturer in Economics
Economic history, long-run growth, microeconometrics, great recessions
Keisuke Otsu Dr Keisuke Otsu Deputy Director
Lecturer in Economics
DSGE modelling, business cycle accounting, international macroeconomics, great recessions

 

Advisory board

Name Title Affiliation
Ippei Fujiwara Professor of Economics Keio University and Australian National University
Simon Hall Head of Macroprudential Strategy Division Bank of England
Lee Ohanian Professor of Economics University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull Laurence R Klein Professor of Economics University of Pensylvania

 

 

Kent members

  Kent members Title Specialist research areas
Sylvain Barde

Dr Sylvain Barde

Lecturer in Economics

Agent-based modelling, computational economics, economic geography

Jagjit Chadha

Professor Jagjit Chadha

Professor of Economics

DSGE modelling, macro-finance, monetary policy

Alfred Duncan

Dr Alfred Duncan

Lecturer in Financial Macroeconomics

 

Stefano Grassi

Dr Stefano Grassi

Lecturer in Economics

Time-series econometrics, forecasting, Bayesian econometrics

Wei Jiang

Dr Wei Jiang

Lecturer in Economics

Macroeconomics of the labour market, search and matching, taxation

Hans-Martin Krolzig

Professor Hans-Martin Krolzig

Professor of Economics

Time-series econometrics, model selection, Markov-Switching models

Dr Andrey Launov

Dr Andrey Launov

Senior Lecturer in Labour Economics

Labour economics, structural econometrics, development and population economics

Mathan Satchi

Dr Mathan Satchi

Lecturer in Economics

Growth, labour markets, search and matching, monetary economics

Katsuyuki Shibayama

Dr Anthony Savagar

Lecturer in Macroeconomics

Industrial organization, dynamical systems and business cycles

Christian Siegel

Dr Christian Siegel

Lecturer in Macroeconomics

 

Katsuyuki Shibayama

Dr Katsuyuki Shibayama

Lecturer in Economics

DSGE modelling, business cycles, computational economics, econometrics

Guy Tchuente

Dr Guy Tchuente

Lecturer in Economics

Econometric theory, applied econometrics

Tony Thirlwall

Professor Tony Thirlwall

Professor of Economics

Economic structure, growth, balance of payments, regional economics

Alpo Willman

Professor Alpo Willman

Lecturer in Economics

Monetary policy, technical change, currency crises

Visitors

 

Visitors

Name Affiliation Date of visit
Dr Laura Puzzello Monash University February 2017
Professor Karine Gente Aix-Marseille School of Economics June 2016
Professor Carine Nourry Aix-Marseille School of Economics June 2016
Mark Zhou University of Waterloo, Canada February 2016
Alejandro Garcia Cintado PhD visitor, Pablo de Olavide University, Seville December 2015
Dr Masaru Inaba Kansai University August 2015
Professor Jaime Orrillo Catholic University of Brasilia February 2015

 

 


Research


Cargo ShipOur research is regularly published in top international peer-reviewed journals such as The American Economic Review, Economic Journal, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of the European Economic Association, International Economic Review, Review of Economic Dynamics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. A list of recent working papers from our members since 2012 can be found below.

Our main research focus is within the following areas:

  • Growth, technology and distribution
  • Business cycles
  • Labour markets and public policy
  • International macroeconomics
  • Economic history and economic geography
  • Macro-finance and monetary policy
  • General equilibrium and computational methods
  • Time-series econometrics, Bayesian methods and forecasting

Recent working papers

2015

  • Sylvain Barde, 'A fast algorithm for finding the confidence set of large collections of models', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1519, University of Kent
  • Katsuyuki Shibayama, 'Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1518, University of Kent
  • Marine Carrasco and Guy Tchuente, 'Efficient estimation with many weak instruments using regularization techniques', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1517, University of Kent
  • Guy Tchuente, 'High school human capital portfolio and college outcomes', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1516, University of Kent
  • Marine Carrasco and Guy Tchuente, 'Regularized LIML for many instruments', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1515, University of Kent
  • Alexander Klein and Nicholas Crafts, 'Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth: U.S. Cities, 1880-1930', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1514, University of Kent
  • Matthew J. Hill, Jose Silva and Judit Vall, 'Act Now: The Effects of the 2008 Spanish Disability Reform', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1512, University of Kent
  • Davide Delle Monache, Stefano Grassi and Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 'Testing for Level Shifts in Fractionally Integrated Processes: a State Space Approach', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1511, University of Kent
  • Timo Bettendorf and Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 'German Wage Moderation and European Imbalances: Feeding the Global VAR with Theory', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1510, University of Kent
  • Filippo Ferroni, Stefano Grassi and Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 'Fundamental shock selection in DSGE models', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1508, University of Kent
  • Sylvain Barde, 'Direct calibration and comparison of agent-based herding models of financial markets', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1507, University of Kent
  • Miguel A. León-Ledesma and Mathan Satchi, 'Appropriate Technology and the Labour Share', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1505, University of Kent
  • Sylvain Barde, 'A Practical, Universal, Information Criterion over Nth Order Markov Processes', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1504, University of Kent
  • Konstantinos Angelopoulos, Wei Jiang and James Malley, 'Fiscal multipliers in a two-sector search and matching model', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1502, University of Kent

 

2014

  • Jagjit S. Chadha and Alex Waters, 'Applying a Macro-Finance Yield Curve to UK Quantitative Easing', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1418, University of Kent
  • Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 'On the Interaction Between Economic Growth and Business Cycles', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1417, University of Kent
  • Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 'Is there any relationship between the rates of interest and profit in the U.S. economy?', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1416, University of Kent
  • Wei Jiang, 'Tax Reforms in Search-and-Matching Models with Heterogeneous Agents', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1414, University of Kent
  • Kevin S. Nell and A.P. Thirlwall, 'Explaining Differences in the Productivity of Capital Across Countries in the Context of 'New' Growth Theory', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1412, University of Kent
  • Aydan Dogan, 'Euro- US Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: How Far Can We Push General Equilibrium Models?', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1409, University of Kent
  • Wei Jiang, 'Optimal taxation and labour wedge in models with equilibrium unemployment', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1407, University of Kent
  • Stefano Grassi, Tommaso Proietti, Cecilia Frale, Massimiliano Marcellino and Gianluigi Mazzi, 'EuroMInd-C: a Disaggregate Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity for the Euro Area and member countries', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1406, University of Kent
  • Stefano Grassi, Nima Nonejad and Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 'Forecasting with the Standardized Self-Perturbed Kalman Filter', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1405, University of Kent
  • Stefano Grassi and Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 'It’s all about volatility of volatility: evidence from a two-factor stochastic volatility model', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1404, University of Kent
  • Jagjit S. Chadha and Morris Perlman, 'Was the Gibson Paradox for Real? A Wicksellian study of the Relationship between Interest Rates and Prices', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1403, University of Kent
  • Amanda Gosling and Mathan Satchi, 'Separation incentives and minimum wages in a job-posting search framework', School of Economics Discussion Paper 1401, University of Kent
  • Javie Ordóñez, Hector Sala and José I. Silva, 'Real Unit Labour Costs in Eurozone Countries: Drivers and Clusters', IZA Discussion Papers 8258, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
  • Roberto Casarin, Stefano Grassi, Francesco Ravazzolo and Harman K. van Dijk, 2014. 'Parallel sequential Monte Carlo for efficient density combination: The DeCo MATLAB toolbox', Working Paper 2014/11, Norges Bank.

 

2013

  • Hans-Martin Krolzig and Reinhold Heinlein, "Symmetry and Separability in Two-Country Cointegrated VAR Models: Representation and Testing", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1323, University of Kent
  • Reinhold Heinlein and Hans-Martin Krolzig, "Global stochastic trends in growth, interest and inflation. Is the post-Bretton-Woods era driven by the Volcker disinflation?", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1322, University of Kent
  • Reinhold Heinlein and Hans-Martin Krolzig, "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: A Balanced Two-Country Cointegrated VAR Model Approach", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1321, University of Kent
  • Alex Klein and Keisuke Otsu, "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1317, University of Kent
  • Jagjit S. Chadha, Germana Corrado and Luisa Corrado, "Stabilisation Policy in a Model of Consumption, Housing Collateral and Bank Lending", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1316, University of Kent
  • Jagjit S. Chadha and Elisa Newby, "Midas, transmuting all, into paper: the Bank of England and the Banque de France during the Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1315, University of Kent
  • Alexander Klein and Tim Leunig, "Gibrat’s Law and the British Industrial Revolution", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1314, University of Kent
  • Katsuyuki Shibayama and Jagjit S. Chadha, "Inventories and the Stockout Constraint in General Equilibrium", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1308, University of Kent
  • Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou and Miguel León-Ledesma, "World, Country, and Sector Factors in International Business Cycles", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1307, University of Kent
  • Jagjit S. Chadha, Luisa Corrado and Sean Holly, "A Note on Money and the Conduct of Monetary Policy", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1306, University of Kent
  • Karine Gente, Miguel A. León-Ledesma and Carine Nourry, "External Constraints and Endogenous Growth: Why Didn’t Some Countries Benefit From Capital Flows?", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1304, University of Kent
  • Nicholas Crafts and Alexander Klein, "Geography and Intra-National Home Bias: U.S. Domestic Trade in 1949 and 2007", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1302, University of Kent
  • Jose I. Silva and Judit Vall-Castello, "Partial Disability System and Labor Market Adjustment: The Case of Spain", Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles 13-201, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

 

2012

  • Suparna Chakraborty and Keisuke Otsu, "Deconstructing Growth - A Business Cycle Accounting Approach with application to BRICs", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1212, University of Kent
  • Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni and Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2012. "The dynamics of hours worked and technology", Banco de España Working Papers 1238, Banco de España.
  • Francis Breedon, Jagjit S Chadha and Alex Waters, "The Financial Market Impact of UK Quantitative Easing", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1211, University of Kent
  • Fabrizio Coricelli, Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou and Miguel A. León-Ledesma, "A Disaggregate Characterisation of Recessions", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1209, University of Kent
  • Jagjit S Chadha, Luisa Corrado and Jack Meaning,  "Reserves, Liquidity and Money: An Assessment of Balance Sheet Policies", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1208, University of Kent
  • Jagjit S Chadha and James Warren, "Accounting for the Great Recession in the UK: Real Business Cycles and Financial Frictions", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1207, University of Kent
  • Katsuyuki Shibayama and Iain Fraser, "Non-Homothetic Growth Models for the Environmental Kuznets Curve", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1206, University of Kent
  • Jagjit S Chadha, "World Real Interest Rates: A Tale of Two Regimes", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1205, University of Kent
  • Miguel A León-Ledesma, Peter McAdam and Alpo Willman,  "Non-Balanced Growth and Production Technology Estimation", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1204, University of Kent
  • Stephen Broadberry, Bruce Campbell, Alexander Klein, Mark Overton and Bas van Leeuwen, "British Economic Growth, 1270-1870: an output-based approach", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1203, University of Kent
  • Sylvain Barde, "Back to the future: economic rationality and maximum entropy prediction", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1202, University of Kent
  • Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni and Miguel A León-Ledesma, "Interpreting the Hours-Technology time-varying relationship", School of Economics Discussion Paper 1201, University of Kent
  • José M. Albert, Nikolaos Georgantzis, Jorge Mateu and José I. Silva, "The agglomeration effect of the Athens 2004 Olympic Games", Working Papers 2012/02, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  • José I. Silva and Judit Vall-Castello, "Why Are So Many Disabled Individuals Not Working in Spain? A Job Search Approach", IZA Discussion Papers 6317, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • José I. Silva and Judit Vall-Castello, "Evaluating the Impact of a Reduction in the Generosity of Disability Benefits: The 2008 Spanish Reform", IZA Discussion Papers 6482, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • José I. Silva and Javier Vázquez-Grenno, "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in a Two-Tier Labor Market", Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2012:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  • María Cervini-Plá, José I. Silva and Judit Vall-Castello, "Estimating the Income Loss of Disabled Individuals: The Case of Spain", IZA Discussion Papers 6752, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • María Cervini-Plá, José I. Silva and Antonia López-Villavicencio, "Labor disruption costs and real wages cyclicality", MPRA Paper 42366, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Matt P. Dziubinski and Stefano Grassi, 2012. "Heterogeneous Computing in Economics: A Simplified Approach", CREATES Research Papers 2012-15, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

 

 


News and events


Future events

Past events


Consultancy and training


TokyoMaGHiC currently offers advanced training in dynamic macroeconomic models (DSGEs) and macroeconometrics at PhD level. Our members are leading experts on their respective areas and we can offer external training and consultancy in the following areas:

Training

  • Macroeconomic models for policy and forecasting: medium and large scale models
  • Labour market analysis
  • Macroeconometrics and forecasting techniques
  • Computational methods for economic problems
  • Macroeconomics of the yield curve

Consultancy

  • Model building and assessment
  • Forecasting
  • Country and comparative analysis
  • Understanding the impact of macroeconomic policies and policy evaluation
  • Historical data building, national account reconstruction, and data analysis

Examples of previous consultancy work by MaGHiC members

  • Real business cycle theory and the Japanese economy (Bank of Japan)
  • Estimation of supply side for macroeconomic models (European Central Bank)
  • Business cycle accounting for Japan and Asia (Cabinet Office, Government of Japan)
  • Real and nominal convergence in accession countries (European Central Bank)
  • Structural transformation and productivity in Asia (Asian Development Bank)
  • Interest rate effects of public debt (Bank for International Settlements)

School of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP

Undergraduate enquiries: +44 (0) 1227 827497, Postgraduate enquiries: +44 (0) 1227 827440 or email us

Last Updated: 04/05/2017