School of Economics

Macroeconomics, Growth and History Centre (MaGHiC)

About the Centre

The Macroeconomics, Growth and History Centre (MaGHiC) is the focal point for macroeconomic research, events and PhD training at the University of Kent. The research interests of the group span macroeconomic theory, empirical macroeconomics, macroeconometrics and the macroeconomic analysis of historical data. The Centre has strengths in growth, structural change, computational economics, firm dynamics and macroeconomic history.

Researchers within the Centre have published articles in leading international journals including the American Economic Review, the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of The European Economic Association, the Economic Journal, the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, the Review of Economic Dynamics, the Journal of Econometrics and many others.

Tree Rings

Growth at the extremes

15 January 2018

An Article Image

The American Economic Association has featured a research paper by Dr Christian Siegel in their ‘Chart of the Week‘. The paper entitled ‘Job Polarization and Structural Change’ (with Zsófia Bárány, Sciences Po) was also published in the January 2018 issue of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. You can read the full article here.

We document that job polarization—contrary to the consensus—has started as early as the 1950s in the United States: middle-wage workers have been losing both in terms of employment and average wage growth compared to low- and high-wage workers. Given that polarization is a long-run phenomenon and closely linked to the shift from manufacturing to services, we propose a structural change driven explanation, where we explicitly model the sectoral choice of workers. Our simple model does remarkably well not only in matching the evolution of sectoral employment, but also of relative wages over the past 50 years.

Bárány, Zsófia L., and Christian Siegel. 2018. “Job Polarization and Structural Change.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 10(1): 57-89.
DOI: 10.1257/mac.20150258



School of Economics, Keynes College, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP

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Last Updated: 15/04/2019