As another deadline in Northern Ireland’s ‘on-again, off-again’ political process comes and goes, the University’s Professor Feargal Cochrane, an expert in the province’s politics, has commented.
He said: ‘The most powerful person in Northern Ireland at the moment is not the former First Minister Arlene Foster, nor even Theresa May for that matter.
‘It is the Permanent Secretary in the Department of Finance, David Sterling, who has been making decisions on spending since the March Assembly Elections to ensure that necessary public services are delivered.
‘Northern Ireland has been centre stage in UK politics since the 8 June General Election produced a hung parliament and the minority Conservative Government and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) negotiated a ‘confidence and supply’ arrangement.
‘While it seemed to take an age for this deal to be reached, there was another clock ticking at the same time – one that is arguably much more important for people in Northern Ireland than the Westminster deal.
‘This is the deadline for the restoration of the devolved government in Northern Ireland, which expired last Thursday (29 June), and was extended into a period of extra time until Monday 3 July. That was actually the second deadline that has been missed with Monday completing a hat-trick.
‘Since 8 June we now have other complicating factors – the main one being the arrangement between the DUP and the UK Government, and the extent to which that deal undermines the confidence of nationalist parties in the political process.
‘How can the British government claim to be even handed over Northern Ireland, if it owes its very existence to one of the parties there? Luckily perhaps, Sinn Fein has never regarded the British as being an ‘honest broker’ – even when it was not reliant on DUP votes – so this merely formalises what for them was informal in any case and may not be as damaging as many people fear.
‘The big question is: what happens when the talks fail to reach a successful conclusion? The answer is likely to be a further extension and expansion of direct rule to Northern Ireland. The reality is that we have been seeing a creeping form of direct rule taking place since March, particularly over the spending of money and the delivery of public services.
‘These decisions carry political implications and commit NI to particular directions in public policy that will be difficult to move away from, even if the political parties manage to reach agreement on the restoration of the devolved institutions.
‘To that extent, a move towards direct rule would be formalising and expanding on something that is currently informal. It would however, be a problematic step for Northern Ireland PLC on a number of grounds.
‘Firstly and perhaps most immediately, it would mean that the £1 billion windfall recently trousered by the DUP, will be allocated by civil servants and the Northern Ireland Office, rather than delivered in relation to local level decisions and clear lines of accountability.
‘At a more fundamental level, it will provide a very negative benchmark for the peace process and for the concept that the power-sharing model developed after the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 has the potential to deliver both stability and post-conflict peacebuilding.
‘Nevertheless, a twin track strategy is likely when the Northern Ireland Secretary of State James Brokenshire announces yet another attempt to get agreement between the DUP and SF underway in the Autumn while an informal system of direct rule takes over until then.
‘There is a good chance of a deal then for a number of reasons, not least because without one, SF will be unable to prevent the DUP tail wagging the Conservative Party dog for as long as the Westminster arrangement holds together.
‘The summer months may allow space for all parties to develop the necessary wriggle room to allow them to reach an agreement in September. Before that happens, expect a significant round of recriminations to take place over responsibility for the latest failure in the long and winding road of the Northern Ireland peace process.’
Feargal Cochrane is vice chair of the Political Studies Association and professor of International Conflict Analysis at the University of Kent. He is director of the Conflict Analysis Research Centre and deputy head of the School of Politics and International Relations at Kent. His current research is examining the impact of Brexit on the peace process in Northern Ireland and its devolved institutions.