In response to the government’s deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the University’s Professor Feargal Cochrane said: ‘The Brexit negotiations could render the DUP votes meaningless, despite the £1 billion deal.
‘During the hastily arranged ‘signing ceremony’ yesterday, the DUP Chief Whip who did the honours for his party quipped that the last time he had ‘signed his life away’ was when he completed his marriage certificate 30 years previously.
‘In truth however, unlike the Donaldson nuptials, this is no love match – it would be better understood as a shotgun marriage with a ripsnorter of a dowry, a desperate bride and a lothario of a groom, who may decide to run off with the bridesmaids with the dowry in his back pocket, once an opportunity presents itself.
‘The marriage analogy is of course a misnomer – it isn’t a marriage, it is more of an open, free-love relationship, where the DUP may (if it gets the urge) promiscuously get into bed with other political parties, so long as it comes back to the Conservatives on certain formal occasions to satisfy constitutional requirements.
‘So Donaldson has not signed his life away – there is nothing legally or politically binding about the deal and, despite the photo opportunities yesterday, the DUP can walk away from it once the £1 billion is wrestled out of the Treasury without financial, legal or political penalty.
‘Thus, despite the money involved, it would be easier to default on this deal than on your fixed term mortgage or your mobile phone contract.
‘In terms of the specifics – it works for both the government and the DUP in the short term. Theresa May can finally sleep soundly in her bed in the knowledge that she will survive this week’s vote on the Queen’s Speech and she has an additional 10 DUP votes that can be cashed in when really needed on the budget, and any subsequent votes of confidence.
‘Her government can also go into the Brexit negotiations with a little more self-respect, as previously it was not clear if there was actually a functioning government on the UK side of the conversation. It may also allow the current Prime Minister to remain in office for longer, as the basic rules of the constitutional order will remain intact and she will be able to command the confidence of parliament on the key occasions.
‘Luckily for Theresa May, the DUP will not want her government to fall, and her own party does not want another election anytime soon either, as this could deliver a Corbyn-led and politically radical Labour government.
‘However, the internal bleeding within the Conservative Party over Brexit is likely to worsen as Brexit negotiations proceed and if the deal lasts for long enough for the inevitable by-elections to reduce Tory numbers further. This is what happened to John Major’s government in the early-mid 1990s as he was trying to present himself as an honest broker in the emerging peace process in Northern Ireland.
‘The ‘Bastards’ (his word) in the Cabinet undermined him and acted like long, slow torture on the credibility of his leadership. The credibility ship looks to have set sail long ago for the current incumbent of Downing Street – but the lack of numbers may be her undoing in the end regardless of the DUP.
‘Ironically, while the DUP may look to have run off with the cash, it is likely that Theresa May will, in the end, be undone by tensions over Europe within her own party.
‘If Brexit turns out not to mean Brexit (for the likes of Liam Fox, David Davis, Ian Duncan Smith and the many others on that side of the argument), the Prime Minister will lose her majority in any case. The party will have serious public schisms over the shape of the Brexit negotiations and the 10 DUP votes will become relatively meaningless.
‘As for the DUP, they are smiling today and probably will be tomorrow too. In the short term, they can claim to have captured an extra £1 billion from the UK government (and more spuriously to have curbed the ‘dementia tax’ and restored the triple lock on pensions).
‘However, they cannot unilaterally restore devolved government in Northern Ireland and still need to build bridges with Sinn Fein for that to happen. The deadline for this is this Thursday, and it remains to be seen if Sinn Fein will soften its position on the restoration of the political institutions.
‘Given that the former deputy First Minister and republican icon Martin McGuiness collapsed the institutions and went to his death bed claiming DUP arrogance and financial impropriety, it is unlikely that money alone will be enough to tempt them back to Stormont.
‘In the longer term, even if the deal does hold together until Brexit is delivered in 2019, the £1 billion will not last long, so more top ups may be needed and eventually the DUP may be blamed for propping up an unpopular government when the EU subsidies stop after 2020 and the #magicmoneytree loses all of its leaves.’
Feargal Cochrane is vice chair of the Political Studies Association and professor of International Conflict Analysis at the University of Kent. He is director of the Conflict Analysis Research Centre and deputy head of the School of Politics and International Relations at Kent. His current research is examining the impact of Brexit on the peace process in Northern Ireland and its devolved institutions.